March 14, 2010

Jesus is Here. (so, are you gonna buy an iPad?)


Lots of Americans think America sucks now. That it's doomed. That this recession will never end. That there's no future. That America is falling behind. That we don't make things anymore (correct - we don't make them, but we design them). That we're raising a generation of lazy idiots. That we've lost our edge. That we don't lead anymore. That we're doomed.

Sure. We still have realtors lurking amongst us. Nobody big got arrested for the housing bubble scam. Our politicians are incompetent and corrupt. And Sarah Palin is seen as a 'political leader'.

But I submit Apple. And the iPad.

And for good measure, I submit Google, Amazon, FedEx, Facebook and In-and-Out Burger. For starters. Great innovative American companies, great products, great services, brilliant people, and if we're gonna get out of this mess, our saviours.

(and I can't wait to get my hands on one of the little iPad buggers. And yes, of course, I still own AAPL).

43 comments:

Randy said...

Right on, Keefer.

Europe smells said...

You do know that if your holy Global Warming devotees had it their way,we would curl up in the fetal position and produce the same single thing Europe has been producing and the only thing they are capable of.

Self centered Jew envying retards.

Tyrone said...

Off-topic:

We don't want your stinking money!!

Credit union: Pul-lease take your money
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL Nevada Federal Credit Union has a deal for big savers: Withdraw your money and you'll get a bonus.

The credit union, one of the largest in Nevada, figures that deposits from members who don't have a checking account, mortgage loan or any other products are expensive.
...
So the credit union will pay these savers a $25 bonus for withdrawing amounts between $25,000 and $49,999. The bonus jumps to $50 for amounts up to $74,999 and goes to $75 for larger sums.

.

casey said...

I dont want this POS.I can do all the things I need to do in life without it.some of you need to get a hobby besides surfing the net and jerking off to video games.No wonder so many people are obese and on prescription drugs.Get off your lazy fat ass and go hiking, ride a bike and stay away from the drive thru for a week.Try turning off the tv for a a couple hours too.

Mike Hunt said...

Like I did with the Ipod, I will wait for the 2nd or 3rd generation, when a 3G transmitter, camera, improved battery life and other goodies become standard.

It does seem like Apple has the lock on making cool hardware with the cutting edge software to back it up.

Kudos to you for seeing the stock through. So when do you think is a good time to sell AAPL?

-Mike

Anonymous said...

Kieth,

I rarely give you advice, but here goes...Sell your apple stock the day after the ipad goes on sale!

And with the proceeds, order a Double Double, Animal Style with extra spred.

On your way out give the homeless dude a Jackson and smile.

RayNLA

Mark in San Diego said...

Of course if the "bailout" had been targeted to small and medium size business, rather than bailing out GM and Citi, we might have a REAL growing economy again. . .I know small business people who have good products and can't get a loan. . .America WILL rise from the ashes, but despite, not because of the government policies. I will be in line soon for my IPAD. . .

TARPTALFHAMP said...

Too bad we can't have an executive as capable as Steve Jobs in the White House. The achievements of America used to be celebrated by our government, now they are barely tolerated. Apple, Google, IBM, etc., are seen by the administration and Congress as sources of tax revenue and political contributions, not engines of commerce and innovation. Instead of helping businesses, we see massive bailouts and codling of the UAW, AFL-CIO, ACORN, and other collectivist cespools.

Our current President couldn't run a lemonade stand at a profit and from what I've seen, the people advising him are even less capable. Goldman Sachs and their agents at the Fed and treasury run the whole show like a radio-controlled toy truck while our attorney general pretends to see nothing.

This country still has a chance, but only if the whole sorry lot in DC is removed en mass.

keith said...

Mike & Ray (isn't that a morning DJ combo in Tampa?) as to selling AAPL, it's when they pry the shares out of my cold dead hands.

I think they have people there that are from the future. Seriously. Look at what they've created over the past 10 years. It's like aliens have given them the plans.

And it's not over. That's the thing. It's still beginning.

That said, Steve Jobs could die tomorrow. The stock could go down 50% again. But I'm looking 10 years out, and I like what I see. Especially at the stupid forward PE it's trading at today.

Same with google. Same with a lot of companies. And permabears, again, will get slaughtered.

Anonymous said...

As you note, it is designed in the US.

However, where is it made?

How much cash does Apple have on hand? 40 billion?

One would think they could manufacture it here, without child and slave labor, pay pretty good salaries and still make a boat load of money.

But yet, they don't?

The person that is Apple is a psychopath, just like many of the the other corporations in the US
and the world.

keith said...

Oh, when I was home this winter, I stuck to a triple protein style only ketchup grilled onions fresh onions side of pickles.

Of course, they got it right every time, no questions asked.

I order a hamburger ketchup only at burger king, mcdonalds or five guys, and the place shuts down, the idiots working there screw it up.

In-and-Out may be the best run company in America. Seriously. It may be the very best run company in America. I miss 'em every day over here.

Robert said...

For most of the 20th Century we were the mighty industrial and manufacturing colossus that supplied the world. Now we no longer have US Steel or GM (or a middle class) but we design cool toys and make a mean burger. In your face Germany.

Anonymous said...

Without an industrial base we are NOT coming out of this mess , Keith. Just Bubble after Bubble and spending (borrowing) money we don't have is the only way without JOBS.

Corporate hoarding has KILLED America.

Banana Republicrat said...

We are still leading alright, leading the world into the New Dark Ages!

As good as those companies are at what they do, their massive reach leaves this country vulnerable to the fortunes of a handful of corporate monocultures. Centralizing industries will not create more jobs than it destroys, so if you'd like to go long on something else I'd suggest prison contractors. Not a perma anything, when I see reason to be hopeful I will be so.

That being said, In-N-Out is as good as it gets --God Bless America!

Fruity Pebbles said...

"I think they have people there that are from the future. Seriously. Look at what they've created over the past 10 years. It's like aliens have given them the plans."

Keith, you are seriously cute.

Bumperman said...

Can't see how making burgers, selling books and other crap people don't need, delivering packages, providing information, and connecting people is going to pull us out of the bottomless pit we've dug ourselves. All we do is shuffle paper and provide "services" to each other. Oh....and watch TV and EAT! We ARE doomed Keefer!

Anonymous said...

I miss 'em every day over here.

The day they stopped giving out those bumper stickers...a real American tragedy.

Anonymous said...

by todays research, perhaps "diluted" erased truth, "rumor" it is said statins inhibit the creation of collaterials that are required if one were to survive the heart disease they are perscribed as a prevention and help for, in use by hundreds of millions of people and generating billions upon billions of profits......and aiding in the generation of more billions upon billions of dollaRS

Bukko Canukko said...

I admire your faith in America, Keith. For someone as piss-taking as you can be sometimes, it's noble that you still believe in something.

Noble but misguided. The America that once was is not any more. As several people up-thread have pointed out, the U.S. doesn't MAKE much any more that the rest of the world wants. Cool designs are fine, but how many burger-flippers in the beat-down 'burbs can afford what those American designers devise? (Especially because they can't flip their house to make money to buy things any more.) And even when Americans CAN stump up for a iPad, the money they spend goes overseas, not to Detroit or some U.S. factory town.

The U.S. has gone off the rails. Starting about mid-Clinton, the focus shifted to bubbles and financial engineering, not products and real engineering. That and building death technology. America still makes the best ways of killing people. USA! USA! USA!

I don't want to totally trash the American people, because there are many smart and decent ones in the country. Certainly a majority of the population.

But the dumbasses have reached a critical mass. Once you get about 1/3 of a nation's population who are like a millstone of stupid around a country's neck, it's going to drown. I long for the days when cretins knew enough to be ashamed of their stupidity, and shut the fuck up about it. Now they go out in public with teabag earrings. Hey numbskulls -- go back in the closet, eh?

(Get-rich-quick idea: sell a line of teabags with Sarah Palin's face on the little paper square at the end of the teastring. You'd get Teabaggers buying them like rednecks bought Billy beer in the Carter years. Even liberals would buy 'em, just to shove Palin's head underneath scalding water!

The real reason America is doomed, though, is its leadership. I'm not just talking about the politicians. They're easily bought pawns.

But the corporate leadership which buys the pollies doesn't give a rat's ass about the American people. That's because everything that's done in the U.S. right now isn't done for the good of the country, it's done for the good of the corporations.

Those corporations only look out for themselves, not any nationality of humans. The corpos would sell the bodies of the American people to a sausage-making plant if there was enough profit in it.

Scamming Americans through "financial engineering," kicking citizens out of their homes and making them debt slaves is the money equivalent to grinding up their bones to put in bags of calcium fertilizer. The corpos are going to steal every possible retirement dollar that Americans have put aside, then grab as much of their land as they can, and finally allow Americans to die early if they're too old or sick to be productive.

I wish I had your optimism, Keith. I think the American people are going to be treated like Africans have always been treated -- rolled over by the economic neo-colonizers.

Americans -- there's a serf in your future! You wanna see the serf? Just look in the mirror...

Bukko Canukko said...

The day they stopped giving out those bumper stickers...a real American tragedy.

Oddly enough, we have one of those stickers (the top half of that image, at least) on our laptop. We bought it used on eBay, so it's courtesy of the former owner.

I've never eaten at In-and-Out, though. I'm more into falafel, although I popped into this place for a burger on my Saturday bike ride. Their slogan is "You can't beat Vera's meat." That sounds like something an Australian burger chain would say!

Anonymous said...

Kieth,

I had another Housing Panic moment today and thought about DOPES...

Has anyone seen out there seen DOPES?

I kind of miss him and Andrew Hack and his Snapping Turtle Talk.

Anyone else?

While I am at it, how about a Meetup in Vegas? I hear it's really cheap these days!

RayNLA

Anonymous said...

Bukko Canukko said...
The day they stopped giving out those bumper stickers...a real American tragedy.

Oddly enough, we have one of those stickers (the top half of that image, at least) on our laptop. We bought it used on eBay, so it's courtesy of the former owner.

I've never eaten at In-and-Out, though. I'm more into falafel, although I popped into this place for a burger on my Saturday bike ride. Their slogan is "You can't beat Vera's meat." That sounds like something an Australian burger chain would say!

_____________________________________


Bukko,

I know we had this discussion a couple of months ago. And you stated that you had given up on the Char sui Bao.

But since you are in Vancouver now, please go to China town and try the Char Sui Bao at the place that makes them in the front window.

Best I ever had.

RayNLA

PS. While you are at it try the Dim Sum at the spot directly across the street. I loved the comunale seating!

Charles said...

I don't see how this effects the economic situation of America in the least.

Japan had the most successfl fome entertainment product ever in the Playstation 2. It didn't stop there deflationary spiral. And i doubt the Ipad will sell half of the PS2.

Fact of the matter is most people don't own stock and until a domestic job boom happens deflation is in the cards for hard assets. The FED's actions will only raise the cost of other goods (fuel, energy, etc.) which will FURTHER pressure on RE.

People need to make money at the bottom. Trickle up is the only thing that can avert SEVERE deflation.

Do you see wages rising Keith? I don't...

evildoc said...

I've used Macs since before there *were* Macs ;)

17 yo. 1982. Apple II+

48k (not Meg) of Ram. Green 40column caps only screen. Tape recorder for programs. $2500. eventually 150k (not meg) floppy drive for $500 more.

Drive a "blackbook" laptop now- 4meg, 250gb drive. Love it.

-----

But, no IPAD here.

Thing is a mess. Poor storage. Poor interface to pull in data. Cannot use flash. Rests in unnatural position.

Maybe in three years after brutal revision or with the "world" "catching up" to its profound prescience, I will consider one.

A basic laptop or netbook is overwhelmingly better choice for nearly all needs

-evildoc

Freddy said...

Hey Bukko, what do you all do with the stupid "millstone" people up there in Vancouver? Seeing as they are a total drag on an enlightened society filled with smart, uber-productive people like you, surely Canada has some solution to this problem. Do you compost them, or does Vera recycle them into one of her burgers?

science teacher said...

Have you lost your mind?

This is worth a blog entry?

Sad Keith, and suprising.

Andrew from Russia said...

A 3-year dollar CD in Russia still earns 7.9% p.a., while the latest e-trinket depreciates 30% p.a. Sorry but in this post-consumerist economy we look at productivity-increasing features more exactingly when considering the purchase.
I'm actually deferring upgrades of my 8-year old homeputer as it appears the Moore's law is slowing down (still waiting for 8G DDR-3 DIMMs to hit the market in volume), and I'm least likely to hold shares in any IT company today. To put it in Greenspanish, there's still "some froth" in the sector...

Deucebag said...

Hard Times Cafe's Chili Cheddar Burger (with Cincinatti) kicks 5 Dude's burger's ass.

That said, I have been here and there around the world a little bit, however, for your inebriated late night snacking pleasure, nothing, and I mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, beats a Garbage Plate, preferably from Nick Tahou's on Main Street at 2:00AM.

Seriously, I have yet to find better drunken food.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Tahou_Hots

keith said...

There's a white-castle type burger joint near detroit called greene's hamburgers that's the all-time best drunk food in the world

anyone know of it?

http://www.yelp.com/biz/greenes-hamburgers-farmington

I'm in pain even thinking of it, being 5000 miles away. The USA does the best burgers.

Anonymous said...

Andrew Hac and Dopes.

Heh.

Bukko Canukko said...

Freddy said...
Hey Bukko, what do you all do with the stupid "millstone" people up there in Vancouver? Seeing as they are a total drag on an enlightened society filled with smart, uber-productive people like you, surely Canada has some solution to this problem. Do you compost them, or does Vera recycle them into one of her burgers?

Freddy, I think Canada sends them all to my hospital! Today, I have two patients who are homeless and due to be discharged to shelters. Both have hepatitis, one has HIV, one is schizophrenic... Then there's another guy who's been here since November with an odd chronic blood disease that colours his skin like Mozilo's. He hasn't worked since he was in his 30s (two decades ago) because of his debility. He's supposed to be discharged too, but he's fighting against leaving because it's so cushy in the hospital for him. These are all people of Anglo-Saxon heritage, BTW.

The only high-functioning guy is a 60-ish Asian immigrant who achieved material success and has a good supportive family. Poor bugger has lung cancer and will not live as long as the bludger patients I have. Here he is, a newcomer to this country, worked hard since he got here, and now is destined to die before the year is out. There's no cosmic justice, is there?

Luckily, Canadian society has decided that it will take care of its citizens, whether they're hard workers or homeless people. I'm happy with that, because if it wasn't for sick, desperate people, I wouldn't have a job. Makes me wonder who's the real leech here -- the people who suck off the teat of the medical system, or ME, who depends on THEM for my paycheque.

I don't think they put them into Vera's burgers, because it's easier and cheaper to buy cow meat. Can you imagine how much you'd have to pay a specialized butcher to do the "Sweeny Todd" thing to human carcasses?

Bukko Canukko said...

RayNLA said...

PS. While you are at it try the Dim Sum at the spot directly across the street. I loved the comunale seating!

Ray -- not sure which places you mean, because Chinatown is large here. For communal seating, though, you might be talking about Hon's Wun-Tun House (that's how they spell it, "wun-tun"). It's located on Keefer Street, no lie about the name. I ate there once, and it was OK, but not spectacular. I've had so much average Chinese food in my life that I'm more apt to go for Vietnamese or Thai first. Even if they're average, which many are, at least it's something different.

And as far as drunk food goes, you can't beat a souvlaki! (They call them gyros in the U.S. and donairs up here.) The chewy, greasy lamb-based mystery meat tastes so good going down, and it makes a colourful splatter on the footpath when it comes back up.

keith said...

Wake me up after the third Fed rate rise. Until then, why not enjoy Ben's Bubble? Been a great year for anyone who listened to my March 2009 "green shoots" call. Or my MOABO call. If I remember, 92% of readers here were against that.

Market will be choppy, and some big drops here and there as people are still nervous after the 2008 disaster, but up. And as always, it's about the forward PE.

Invest wisely.

Anyone want to guess when we see Dow 14,000 again?

Anonymous said...

And Kieth:

While you timing was right on the March low, your rationale was not necessarily correct.

That is, this current "bull" or "bullshit" had nothing to do with the stimulus money bomb.

Indeed, it has been nothing but illegal manipulation and fraud - to levels not even you imagined and considered.

Seriously - just make a listing of all the bs that has happened over the past few years.

keith said...

anon, I see the rebound off the march 09 low for these reasons

1) a $10 trillion money bomb by the Fed and US gov't.

2) company p/e's to the point where many were trading as if they'd never sell another product again

3) the market ran out of sellers. pure and simple. the last panicked fool sold at the exact wrong time. As they always do.

4) agree with them or not, obama and geithner restored some semblance of confidence, after the disaster of bush and paulson, little children who didn't know what to do

5) manias, panics and crashes. it was all right there. that, combined with ben's helicopter speech, told us everything we needed to know

now, I can tell you fraud and manipulation are running wild. with no new regulations, and nobody big put in jail, it's still the wild, wild west. 30-1 leverage may not exist, but we're probably heading right back. and that'd be dangerous. real dangerous.

the best thing the market could do right now is tread water for a bit. a 20% bump by summer could be all the Fed needs to jack rates up 2% at a time. And that 10% unemployment is gonna stay up there for awhile, if it doesn't get worse.

wall street gets rich, the rich get rich, and working people (or non-working people with no insurance and no stocks) get f*cked.

invest wisely. and keep the popcorn popping. this ain't over.

Casey123 said...

OK Keith, you're on record saying the markets will be up. You nailed the rally in March '09, but as anon noted you didn't get the cause right. Now about that Dow 14K, I call B.S.

The fraudsters and their government allies are running out of cash flow to feed the beast. Elections will change the players and at some point this year the beast will consume them. We will have a serious credit dislocation, maybe even worse than in '08, and there will be no bailouts this time. You can hold on to those AAPL shares if you like, heck they might be back in the money by 2015.

keith said...

I'm not a raging bull - that was a year ago

Now the markets are more fairly valued. there are still some deals to be had (hint - look at energy), but you have to do the research. look at the pe's, look at the balance sheets, look at the dividends.

but for fun, my year-end prediction would be dow 11,500, nasdaq 2,500, s&p 1250. 'bout 10% feels right.

someone gets assassinated, a city gets nuked, or we bomb iran, all bets off. we make it through the rest of the year relatively event free, should be good. bernanke is gonna keep rates artificially low for the rest of the year, maybe longer (they should be 2% or more already). fed stimulus keeps pouring in. unemployment has peaked. and companies see favourable year over year comps (easy beats)

anyone else want to get on record, have fun

Anonymous said...

I'm not a raging bull - that was a year ago

Now the markets are more fairly valued. there are still some deals to be had (hint - look at energy), but you have to do the research. look at the pe's, look at the balance sheets, look at the dividends.

but for fun, my year-end prediction would be dow 11,500, nasdaq 2,500, s&p 1250. 'bout 10% feels right.

someone gets assassinated, a city gets nuked, or we bomb iran, all bets off. we make it through the rest of the year relatively event free, should be good. bernanke is gonna keep rates artificially low for the rest of the year, maybe longer (they should be 2% or more already). fed stimulus keeps pouring in. unemployment has peaked. and companies see favourable year over year comps (easy beats)

anyone else want to get on record, have fun
-------------
Your sound like a Realtor!

Anonymous said...

800 dollars for this! I can get a fully loaded laptop for 500! Tell me why should i bother getting an electronic notepad, where instead I can get a laptop?

keith said...

realtors never told you to look at the p/e

if you had, you never would have bought a home 2005 - 2008

it's all about the p/e, it will always be about the p/e


as to why an ipad? It's $499 (get the facts straight) with wifi, and you have it as a secondary device, not a computer replacement

I plan on using it to read the newspaper at the cafe mainly. but to each his own

Anonymous said...

Heck F*CKING NO.

This is the stupidest shit I have ever seen.

Dny

Mike Hunt said...

Keefer,

My predictions:

Dow will peak this year around 11,300 points. And will hit a low of 8180 or so. Year end will be around 9300.

Unemployment goes up to 12% for real U3 but the gov't cooks the numbers and keeps it 10%.

Healthcare bill stalls in it's current form. It's re-written in a simpler bill and is passed.

Big upset in November, Republicans take a lot of seats (easy prediction).

China starts to take a swoop in the property market and the government does a huge bailout.

The fraud continues with big banks and more people start to call out Obama for the fact that he is a lame ass. Obama actually plays the race card which is a shocker since he never did this before.

Thailand's king gets very sick and Thaksin tries to come back but the king still survives through the end of the year and Thaksin is not able to return.

Well, that's it for the predictions. Time will tell which are good ones.

-Mike

Anonymous said...

I hear baaing...

The reaction I have got in the past to the fact that America is the world's largest manufacturer is usually something like, "Yeah, but they're all just assembly plants".

So once again it's up to me to do the research instead of mindlessly parroting ignorant bloggers.

Plenty of manufacturing companies still exist in America. The U.S continues to make steel, rope, nuts and bolts, even raw plastic. All the way from the simple components and raw materials on up to the finished product.

IDK what keeps people from doing some simple Googling. Plenty of people here seem to have read up on global warming (the facts, not blog posts) - why not manufacturing?

The lesson here is that saying something doesn't make it true. I hardly comment on blogs because the time is more productively spent checking facts.

The other lesson was given a long time ago by Abraham Lincoln. A little something to do with keeping quiet vs. talking.