March 31, 2010

Perma-Bears and Tea Baggers will hate this post


HousingPANIC was about the shit-storm to come. Before people knew. And then it came.

Soot & Ashes was the pivot, from crash to recovery. Before people knew. And then it came.

Even my March 2009 "green shoots" call was rejected by 94% of readers here, although it was the EXACT bottom, perhaps to the hour, but it doesn't matter, history proved me right yet again. Perma bulls get slaughtered. Perma bears get slaughtered. Smart and open-minded people who read Manias, Panics and Crashes do OK.

And now, a year later, it's nice to see The Economist on it yet again. Their "In Come the Waves" article was hands-down, without-question the single best piece of reporting during the Great Bubble. And this piece, "A Special Report on America's Economy", is one of the best pieces I've seen during the recovery.

So many of you are still (wrongly) perma-bears. Still sickeningly Glenn-Beck-Fox-News-Tea-Bagger negative. Still stuck in 2007, and 2008. And still see so much as what's going on as the future, when instead it's a trailing indicator. You have no hope, you think we'll never recover, you're angry, you want problems and not solutions, and, as always, you're wrong. Dead wrong.

The US is rising from this disaster, whether you want it to or not. We fired the corrupt GOP f*ckers who got us into this mess, and we're rooting out the corrupt f*ckers now on both sides of the aisle who want to keep us down.

We hired a great president, not just a good one, but a great, for-the-history-books one, even if he is to be hated or killed in his time.

We realized that the current path was unsustainable. We accounted for (most of) the bad debts. We took the 30% - 50% haircut on home prices. We stopped the stupid lending. And we got on a long, long path, that will eventually take us to solvency and fiscal and social responsibility. Eventually.


Now is the time for radical change, and radical change we shall have. Health care. Social Security. Medicaid. Medicare. Energy policy. Taxes. Trade. Education. Fiscal policy. Social policy. Infrastructure. The military. Transportation. Gays and civil rights. Commerce. Immigration. NCAA football playoffs. Internet devices. Pop culture. The American brand. Views on religion. Scientific knowledge. How we get our news.

You name it, everything will soon change. Dramatically. Like it or not, everything will soon change. There will be ups, and there will be sickening oh-dear-god downs, but everything, for the better, will now change.


So buckle up. Get out of the bunker. Bet on America. Bet on knowledge. Bet on change.

In the end, as always, you'll win.

62 comments:

yoski said...

Running a deficit of 10+% of GDP, but all is well in fantasy land. That worked out well for Greece too, until it didn't.
Keith you're just as delusional about the Dems and Obama as the neo-cons were about Bush/Cheney. I suggest you lay off the kool aide.

edd browne said...

If the Dems lose in November,
optimism will be in doubt.
If some neanderthal shoots at
the President, optimism will be in doubt.

In case these things don't happen (or maybe
more so if they do) prepare; with training,
education, and "reliable" information on
the front burner so that we stop making
ourselves the sad laughing stock of the World.

Honica Jewinski said...

LMMFAOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Wow, you better lay off the Prozac I think you close to overdosing.

Ron Paul is right! said...

Not a perma bear, not a perma anything actually.

Don't watch Fox news, don't watch any main stream news at all actually.

Not a tea bagger, haven't even really studied this supposed "party or group" or whatever it is.

I read, A LOT. I seek the truth in whatever form it takes. And what you say in this post is not the truth. Here is the list of falsehoods.

-Obama, a once in history great president. FALSE. He is the same as the others before. He is bought and paid for. He is not changing anything. He has not arrested one of the Wall Street or mortgage scheisters. He has not removed the lobbyists and special interest influence from Washington. He has not brought any troops home, he in fact is increasing military spending and deployment. In the month of February, he oversaw the spending of THREE TIMES THE NATIONS INCOME!

-We are on a road to solvency and recovery. Again, a lie. We are not even close to the bottom. When Japan bailed out its bankers and scheisters and basically provided the model for our current administrations chosen path, they set on a multiple decade long stagflation or whatever you want to call it. That is the BEST case scenario for us right now unless we change our ways. And get this, even after the zero interest rates and creative accounting that Japan did, their largest investment bank still went under back in the late 90's - early 00's. Can't remember when exactly, but if folded. Just like Goldman will eventually do. Just like Chase or B of A will eventually do. It is a mathematical inevitability. We have fixed NOTHING. We have only delayed the reckoning.

If you did call bottom in March, that was an awesome call. I am not currently a trader, I was always a long term guy. I am not currently in the market because this babies coming down. But I am going to start looking into trading. I have already begun spending some time studying trading. Spending all ones time reading about the joke that is our economy and government is counter productive. It does no good to dwell on that stuff. I am going back to school for law to possibly do something about it. Anyway, on that point you are right, to dwell on it is counter productive. To be a perma anything is counter productive. Trading the markets is going to be the only way to make money in the coming years. Buy and hold is no longer gonna get it done.

Our president, our government, our economy, is all a joke. The waste and corruption is beyond measure. The country has zero ethics. People are not rewarded for having good ethical behavior. In fact if one does the right thing and it costs a company money, they will probably lose their job.

Until these things change, it will just be more of the same.

long beach,ca said...

since there is no "american culture" to save, i fear the worse for america. what you see on tv is the culture of the stupid dumbfucks of america, the 90+% of the american population. brazil here we come.

TARPTALFHAMP said...

You are right about the coming transformation Keith, but you are delusional if you think the debt problems are behind us. Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke have done nothing to deal with the underlying debt monsters. They're just locked in a cave for now while we're told every day to forget they exist. Government stimulus can only masquerade as economic growth for a while, then the money runs out.

The real strength of America is in the common people and their ethos. Elites (financial and academic)now openly mock this group, but anyone with half a brain will realize that these commoners will be the source and forge of any true progress.

Pay Lay Ale said...

Keith seems to mistake the economy with the stock market. Yes, the stock market bottomed in Mar. 2009. But we're still shedding jobs. Companies are not making profits that justify their stock prices. Wasn't it you that said, "It's the PE stupid. It'll always be about the PE."

"We hired a great president, not just a good one, but a great, for-the-history-books one, even if he is to be hated or killed in his time."

Ahh, you mean the guy that had to lie about the health care bill and do shady smoke-filled backroom deals, intimidation, and bribery to get his government takeover bill though that the American people didn't want??

"We realized that the current path was unsustainable."

No one realized that, especially not Obama. Instead of cutting Bush's irresponsible deficit spending, he tripled it.

"We accounted for (most of) the bad debts."

REALLY? Is that why all these failed banks overstated their assets by 20-50% the day before they were shut down by the FDIC? Why isn't anyone being arrested for these shenanigans? Where's the frog marches? Why are Mozillo and Casey free men?

"We took the 30% - 50% haircut on home prices."

And the prices would have fallen more if the govt. didn't support prices. In other words, Obama made shelter, a human necessity, more expensive then it should be.


"We stopped the stupid lending."

Uh, we did? Is that why only the government still loans hundreds of thousands of dollars to people with only 3% down???

"And we got on a long, long path, that will eventually take us to solvency and fiscal and social responsibility. Eventually."

Really? Tripling Bush's deficits, adding another entitlement, robbing $500B from a $90T underfunded entitlement, and doing nothing about the other entitlements will take us to solvency?

"Now is the time for radical change, and radical change we shall have."

There's a name for it. It's called Marxism.

"Health care. Social Security. Medicaid. Medicare."

In 2012 or 2016, the entitlement problem will be even worse. There's no political will to do anything about it and there is nothing anyone can do to fix the current situation. A lot of old people will not get to retire at 65 and they will have their health care rationed. The money and the doctors simply don't exist to give everything that's been promised.

"Energy policy."

Where's the nuclear reactors?

"Taxes."
Ah, so raising taxes even further into the stratosphere will not have any ill effects? It won't cause any distortion in the economy?

"education"

We spend more money than anyone else in the world on education except Switzerland and we have a Turd World education system. Let's double down and give even more money to the NEA. Yes we can!

"Gays and civil rights."

How about getting rid of the Patriot Act instead of voting for it? How about vetoing these surveilance bills instead of signing them?

casey said...

The only thing that has changed has been the govt creating money like madd.Is that anyway to solve problems?

Anonymous said...

Retread

Anonymous said...

For the better for who?

Anonymous said...

I have saved this post as a pdf. If you still have a blog Jan. 2013 I will repost this in full in your comment block if you are brave enough to post a retraction if you are wrong. And I will continue to repost as long as you do not retract.

If you are not wrong, I will repost it in full with the admission that what you said was correct and that I am wrong.

I don't think you will be brave enough when the time comes. You'll probably be on another vacation from your blog and the reality that will be hitting you with a clue-by-4.

For the record, I am agnostic politically. I dropped out, turned off years ago. I hate the bullshit from both sides. And you my friend are as deluded on your leftist side as the tea-baggers are on the right. All "ISMs" fail (ie: Communism, Capitalism, etc.) and all Empires fail, (ie: Babylon, Persia, Greece, Rome, Holy Roman, Portugal, Spain, France, England, Germany, Japan, Russia, America, etc.).

If you are going to worship something then try God. If not, then there are a host of deities to choose from. Anything, including atheism, is better than worshipping an "ISM" such as "liberalism", "conservatism", and worshiping a country, even America.

Anonymous said...

Hey, maybe you should also read, "How to Build a House with Cards."

Anonymous said...

"We took the 30% - 50% haircut on home prices."

That's only some sections of Cali, Miami, Vegas, and Phoenix. There are plenty of markets at the 5-15% marked down from the top, and the stupid money comes pouring in as foreclosures have been delayed by politicians.

Lost Cause said...

Thank God they will finally do something about the NCAA football playoffs.

Angry Leprechaun said...

Ron Paul is Right and Pay Lay Ale summed it up perfectly.

There is more that the two sides Keith. You used to not be on either, but joined one and you are looking like a fool. Once again, if you want to stoop to the level of the tea baggers, than you are no better than them.

RipeDurian said...

"The US is rising from this disaster, whether you want it to or not. We fired the corrupt GOP f*ckers who got us into this mess,"

Keith, I thought you were getting closer to realizing there is little difference between the 2 players in the puppet show we are supposed to pay attention to.

*sigh*

Obama may have had stars in his eyes once upon a time but after being elected they took in the back and explained how it was going to be.

Anonymous said...

Two Words: Sucker Rally.

Anonymous said...

what do you think is gonna happen to gold in the near/mid/long future? you are much better at reading tea leaves than i am, my friend.
xomm

Anonymous said...

Soot & Ashes was the pivot, from crash to recovery.

Even my March 2009 "green shoots" call was rejected by 94% of readers here, although it was the EXACT bottom, perhaps to the hour, but it doesn't matter, history proved me right yet again.

.....as always, you're wrong. Dead wrong.

WE fired the corrupt GOP f*ckers who got us into this mess, and we're rooting out the corrupt f*ckers now on both sides of the aisle who want to keep us down.

WE realized that the current path was unsustainable. WE accounted for (most of) the bad debts.

------------------------------

Thanks for being our pivot, but I think all your "real" pivot folks have moved on.

You finally have your personal chat room where you can expound exponentially about your "rightness".

It was foretold.

JaneZ

SeattleMoose said...

If there is a green shoot it must be the lime kool-aid in that needle....now roll up your sleeve.

Obama is a puppet...same as Bush but more polished
The real rot in this country has not even been addressed....the self-serving financial mafia that pulls all the strings
Lots of unemployed...soon to be more
The U.S government is broke

I really want a STRONG America and a REAL recovery....not an Office of Propoganda "recovery".

But when you have a structure that is rotten in its core, all the Bondo in the world isn't gonna cover up the fact that the rot is still there. So far, all I have seen is bondo, lots and lots of....bondo.

Bukko Canukko said...

It makes me sick, but I find myself agreeing with about 80% of what Pay Lay wrote. Since he's almost always wrong, I'm probably wrong for thinking he's right.

Count me amongst the perma-bears. While I salute you for your optimistically accurate call of the bottom -- you proved me wrong on that! -- I still don't see any changes to the fundamental problems with the U.S. economy. As you said at the time you called it, America got a multi-trillion money bomb. A sugar high. $$$teroids. But that shit wears off.

What's being done to deal with peak oil? I hardly ever hear the phrase mentioned on TV, and if it ain't on TV, then it doesn't exist to the American people. And those people are the ones who are supposed to adapt to changing circumstances. How can you adapt to something you don't even know exists?

Ditto for peak credit, peak population, peak fish, peak soil, so many other peak supplies of things we need...

Meanwhile, I don't think America has hit peak stupidity, but the incline of the curve on that one is getting steeper. (FWIW, most of the Canadians I encounter, while they are generally educated and well-behaved people, have NO IDEA that any shit might soon be hitting the fan. They are as clueless about the big picture as Americans, although I don't think the Canucks will cling to ignorance with both hands like Yanks will.) Next comes peak anger. Peak burning. Peak shooting your neighbour before you shoot yourself because of the rage and desperation you've been driven into.

Good onya for having faith in Hopey, Keith, but a left-winger like me agrees with your right-wing commenters that Obama's a sell-out. He's Bill Clinton in black, a pretend populist who's owned by the power structure. Obama is an intelligent guy, but unless he's playing 11th-dimensional chess as so many of his sycophants believe, I don't see how HE doesn't see that this can only end badly.

But hey, maybe you and Hopey see things more clearly than I do. I hope you two are right. Because if you are, my life will be better. And if you're wrong, and my doom-view is correct, I've got myself into a position where I can ride out the implosion as best as possible. Should I die in the devastation I see coming, I can look back and think "Damn, I had a hell of a life while it lasted!"

After years of reading Jim Kunstler's doomer-blog, I found a used copy of "The Long Emergency" and I have it installed as my bathroom book of the month. I'll have to read that Economist piece as a counterbalance. Too bad I can't see the computer from the crapper...

P.S. This is about the same time of year you got irrationally exuberant in 2009. Some people have SAD -- Seasonal Affective Disorder, which makes them depressed when the days are short and dark. You're so bloody optimistic, I hereby diagnose you as a "SOD".

Anonymous said...

Kieth,

Did you forget that the Orange Man refuses to call Eric Holder back.

Job fairs are becoming a growth industry.

Detroit is getting a new National Park in the heart of the city.

Apple is preparing an apology for the ipad.

Ben is looking at getting a new helicopter.

Tim is still using Turbo Tax.

Suzanne e-mailed me last week, and followed up with a call to my wife.

Oh...and Sarah Palin has a locksmith on retainer.

RayNLA

keith said...

Kinda funny that the housingpanic guy is an optimist eh?

My theory is that like a drug addict who hits their low, nearly dies, that's the time where they can go ahead and die, or they can get to treatment and recover.

I think we got the sh*t kicked out of us so good that we'll now get to treatment, make some hard choices, and recover.

I'm not saying everything is fine today, as it is not, evidenced by our budget deficits, unemployment rate, corrupt politicians and even the fact that Mozilo isn't in jail. There's still a lot of cleaning up to do.

I think this re-invention, rebalancing and recovery could go on for a decade, especially the entitlements battles. But by 2020, after some real hard choices and some pretty sick political wars, America will be doing just fine. Assuming Americans don't make the mistake of putting the people who caused the mess back in power to create more messes.

Without the crisis and crash, this reinvention wouldn't have happened. But the American people are now awake. Some more than others. They know the path they were on, personally and as a nation, was not sustainable. They know their politicians are corrupt, and if not corrupt incompetent and useless. They know not to trust their media. They know they need to save more and consume less. They know (most of them) that the earth is warming up, that cars shouldn't run on gas, and that realtors are evil. And a lot of other things now too.

Again, 94% of you (based on last March's poll) are pretty negative. For good reason. But if you stay that way, you'll miss some significant opportunities, as you already have. And you'll be part of the problem, not the solution.

Pivot.

You'll be glad you did.

edd browne said...

We risk an inverted bubble
if we feed each other poo stew
without knowing poo.

Commodities will later inflate,
and if we have not educated and
prepared for that, poo might soil the fan.

End times be damned.
Time capsules from 2000ce
will be on display in 2500ce.
.

evildoc said...

Yo, Keith,

Have you checked the *volumes* of stock trades this year compared to 07?

regards

evildoc

yoski said...

"I think we got the sh*t kicked out of us so good that we'll now get to treatment, make some hard choices, and recover."
Not a single "hard choice" has been made to date.
" There's still a lot of cleaning up to do. "
Still to do??? Actually we're still in the process of making a mess. Mandatory health insurance anybody? It's simply a tribute payment from the unwashed masses to the insurance and pharma overlords. Similar to the payment to the banksters. Actually health (insurance) will become MORE expensive and therefore even less available to those that need it most. The health bill was by lobbyists for lobbyists. The American worker will pay the bill.
" Assuming Americans don't make the mistake of putting the people who caused the mess back in power to create more messes."
Putting them back in power? News flash Keith, they are still in power. Summers, Geithner, Romer and all the lobbyists that donated to Obama or Bush or whoever else is in power.
Best case scenario we're on the same path as Japan. Now 20 years later they have 200+% debt to GDP and are fubar.

Budvar said...

Oh yes Keith about those "Green shoots", housing, the US$, the economy, well just about anything other than the unemployment rate is plunging faster than Ted Kennedys soul down into hell.

So er.. you want tell us all again about those green shoots sprouting out the arse of Saint Barry of Nairobi?

too much rope said...

Keith,

I've read this blog, and the one before, for quite a while, and have agreed with your p.o.v. probably somewhere around 90% +. On this point, however, I'm not so sure.

You compare the country's attitude to a drug addiction. I totally agree, but isn't one of the first steps for addicts is to admit they have a problem? I live in a very wealthy New England community, and I can assure you many of those who got us into this mess have yet to face reality.

To the contrary, they can't wait for the market, hell any market, to heat up again so they can make the big bucks with little to no effort.

It doesn't stop there - just yesterday I was listening to a news report that was concerned that the economy would take years to get back to its 06-07 peak - but absolutely no mention of why we shouldn't have been at that peak in the first place!

I hope I'm not rambling here, but my point is that I think you and I both agree that the major problem behind the bubble was magical thinking. At this point, I see little proof that those same people who championed the bubble have faced the mistakes that got us here in the first place. So here we go again, I suppose?

Sunny Disposition said...

But, on the bright side, no matter what happens, British chef Jamie Oliver's disastrous venture into the heart of America's nutritional wasteland proved that Americans will eat ANYTHING. So this culture will survive, like cockroaches. USA!!

RobertM said...

@Now is the time for radical change

Where? When? From Obama (a DINO)?

Send me some of what you're smoking because I want to live in a world of Skittle-shitting unicorns too.

I'm a progressive, certainly not a teabagger and I've seen no change that didn't benefit the rich. Same movie, different actors.

casey said...

What has changed gor the avg joe lately, nothing.All that happened is the govt balied out banks and bought all their toxic loans via the federal reserve ponzi scheme.So who is really losing during this downturn?People who are losing houses for the most part basically paid rent as they put nothing down to begin with.In the end the taxpayer will end up paying for the whole mess.the banks wont lose anything as they get hand outs because they are too big to fail.So basically we just screwed the taxpayer again as usual.

Anonymous said...

Mmmmmm, tentatively agree on some of your points. But, until there is a widespread societal shift in thinking about the acceptance/rejection of debt, we are still quite vulnerable. I do see some change but it isn’t what you could call “a wave” – not yet anyway. Then again, a tsunami starts as but a ripple, right? Anyway, on the topic of a bottom in housing – don’t bet the farm on a bottom just yet, my pre-paid debit / gift card hawking friend.

Smug Bastard

ghpacific said...

Keith, April Fools Day is today, so you were 1 day early. I've learned a lot from you, but on this my own counsel will I keep. The big game changer is Peak Oil. The Petro economy funded the rise of the American Middle Class and generally lifted the world out of poverty. Now it's time for Dark Ages 2.0 Gird thy loins.

Mark in San Diego said...

As long time readers know, I don't post much here anymore, because I moved on a year ago, April 1 to be exact - bought a downtown SD condo (had cash and lowballed the developer who was eager to sell). . .also after shorting banks for three years (thanks Keith - I at least owe you dinner). . .I went long on DOW Chem., a few utilities, and this summer bought Citibank at $2.14 a share. . .I was thinking of getting a tatoo (NEVER FIGHT THE FED)- this I have learned from nearly 35 years in the stock market.

I am neither a perma-bear or perma bull. I think the market (and economy) have a ways to run yet, and may trim my holdings later this year. . .in 1992 when we had a terrible recession here in CA (the downside of the "peace dividend" with 100K unemployed engineers), I made the comment to my friends, "if you have 100,000 unemployed steel workers, you are screwed, if you have 100,000 unemployed engineers, you have 100,000 new start-ups.". . .that was true, and these "Star-Wars" engineers from Lockheed, etc. went on to develop the internet companies here in CA.

This current recovery may be a real one - thus slow. . .no new bubbles (we hope), just a nice slow re-build of the economy. . .my two cents here.

edd browne said...

We can wait for change.
Or we can be part of
earlier and better change.

A million folks doing just
a bit more is a big deal.
.

Anonymous said...

"But by 2020, after some real hard choices and some pretty sick political wars, America will be doing just fine."

Ok, now you're beginning to make some sense. Yes, it could take a decade to iron out the problems but let's also hope that by then, they'll actually be some real work for Americans (or any westerners) to do besides tourism for rich east Asians (read China, Singapore, Vietnam, etc) visiting the continent.

Anonymous said...

April Fools?

Anonymous said...

Can we be honest here?

The so-called current bull market is nothing by lies, deceit and propaganda and our so-called government leaders are no better than the shill realturds that caused the housing bubble and the current mess.

So, please excuse my "ignorance" if I am not going along with this tripe. And, by the way, some of us do have principles and despite the fact that we could have made a shitload of money, have chosen not play a rigged game knowing that we are only screwing someone else over.

And let's not forget folks, Kieth is the dude that screwed some poor sap over by knowingly passing off his bullshit overpriced bubble hot potato home to him/her. He will now do the the same with his stock purchases. No?

But yet, he wants YOU to join him and the Great Leader in the land of "skittle shitting unicorns," and he wants YOU to help your fellow man and create a "better" society.

science teacher said...

Betting on knowledge, huh?!

Well, how about knowing what peak oil is, that it´s imminent and that it will choke off any return to normal as we know it.

Boys and and girls. Get ready for the great slow collapse.

Keith, if you think injecting a few Trillion into the system is going to save this sucker then you´ve missed something.

Let´s just start with half a QUADRILLION $ of hidden derivatives.

How about Tier 3 garbage gathering dust in bank vaults.

There's been no mark to market yet. No offshored jobs during the past 15 years have been onshored. (and never will).

Huge Muni bankruptcies are coming all across the country.

Green shoots?
Saved by simply 'printing' digital money?

Keith, you did call a bottom, but this shit has just started. We´re in the third innings.

Housing is beginning the second leg down. A ten year bubble doesn't deflate in three years. You know that.

The dollar will be toast within 5 years.

Remember when gold $1000 was a dream just four years ago. Ha ha. Now $1000 is considered cheap for an ounce.

Anonymous said...

This blog sucks now that every post is a work of satire.

Mark in San Diego said...

Comment on Peak Oil. . .I too thought Peak Oil was for real, but now we know it was a hoax to get more drilling. . .actually the US is energy independent if we switched cars to Natural Gas, and just bumped up fuel milage to 40 mpg. Follow the money folks!. . .Exxon and Chevron have HUGE stakes in LNG and NatGas. . .Exxon just paid a premium to get more Natgas. When "peak oil" hits, Exxon/Chevron will have their NatGas pumps ready.

All of the SoCAl bus fleets, taxi fleets and UPS/Fedex fleets, etc. run on CNG (clean natural gas). I invested in gas a few years ago - it is hasn't been a great investment, but then again my horizon is 10 years.

investorinpa said...

Obaaaammmy gave a lot of people plenty of cheese. I think Keith is 90% correct in what he writes..2010 will be a better than expected year. We'll pay a price at some point for all the shenanigans, of course. Nothing ever moves straight up or down.

As far as all the peak oil ppl go, I predict that in 10 years, oil consumption will be DOWN...we'll make more efficient engines, have more alternative fuels, and will be using oil strictly for industrial use. It happened with whale oil, it'll happen with ground oil.

Jeff said...

Hi Keith,

I've been following you off and on since 2007. I remember posting in the fall of 2008 how if I was a gambling man, I'd buy BofA shares when they were around $5, based on the idea that if USA, Inc. survived, so would BofA.

Looks like I should have made the wager. :)

Smoky Joe said...

Now that health care has been tucked into bed, the next unruly child for Obama to deal with is energy. He tried to fix it a nice warm oil-drilling nightcap, but the coal fires stinking up its diapers will cause a really big mess on his hands. How does he satisfy environmentalists while keeping a lid on energy costs and not pissing off those dependent on coal production, which powers half of the power plants in this country and employs, well, a hell of a lot of people? How about a nice big bowl of Cap'n Trade?

Noodles123 said...

I half agree with you but I thinkit's all a fascade...Things are floating better but the ending to the story will be horrible.

Either we shoot to a different currency to hide the losses...IE that Amero fanatasy 5 greenbacks for 1 Amero or we hit super inflation somewhere.

You're a big believer in history right keith? Look at Mexico/Argentina or Brazil for what has a good chance of happening.

Sad thing is they are better prepared and hardier than the average American and don't wilt when things get bad...Comes with being poor and sadly enough a lil more savvy about the evil of men and their greed.

escrow mama said...

This is an April fools joke, right?

---- said...

You've always given me food for thought that has helped my bottom line. So I'm taking you seriously this time around as well.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

This has to be a freaking joke!

I'm going to give it to you. When many of us were attacking you at SPY 850 and waiting for the next crash, you did say we had some higher levels to test. But to be honest, you did make a whole bunch of general comments in between, in which your opinion was good for either a crash or a massive rally. We had a rally.

But let me touch on a different topic a bit. We did hit the bottom on March 2009, I totally agree with you. The bottom of what is the question? In my opinion, the economy hit the bottom at that time. Nothing else.

Why did the market skyrocket after that, well, first it's because it got too oversold too quickly, and quite honestly too cheap, and no bulls were left to kill. Than, it became a game between the bears and the bulls. With the help of the Fed, I dont think we have to argue on who won the game. Any shorts stops were destroyed all the way up.

Now we are in way overbought territory, and stocks cant get any more expensive. Let's see what the talking heads come up with to support these prices. The free fed money is running out. Banks are still broke, the economy is still teetering at the bottom, credit markets dont look good, countries are bankrupt around the globe.

The question is where do we go from here? As an honest beaten bear, I am going to be honest and say I have no freaking clue. But one thing is sure, I no longer hear bloggers, like you Keith, say anything negative about the market. I dont think there are any bears left. And the ones that are left woudnt dare open their mouth.

All of a sudden we see green shoots. I am a bit skeptical about these sudden happy, we are all good talk. I think something else is going on here. Either you are afraid Keith, or you are trying to test us to see how many bears are left. No bears left, great time to short. If any bears are left, they are all idiots, dont short.

Another thing that pisses me off about your comment is that all of a sudden, we want the worst for the country. If we wanted bad for country wouldnt we be asking for more credit expansion. More debt. Fuck it keith. Your comment is stupid.

Dny

Anonymous said...

And another thing Keith. If all you are doing is testing us perma-bears, that is as sad as Hannity's comment. Stop playing with us like we are a bunch of retards..Please............. I can through you buddy...

If you are really optimistic about our economy, great!!!! It's your choice, and I salute you. Keep your head in the sand and it will all be perfect when you pull out. We will all be debt free, credit will be back to 1980 levels, manufacturing will be back in the US, unemployment will be 3%, and global warming wont be an issue, Obama would still be president, and we will have the next new cutting edge technology. What is the thing nobody can breath without called again, oh wait, yes, the Apple iPad. It will all be better in wonderland Keith! Keep it up!

After all, us doom sayers are useless. Just like we were before the housing market crashed. Remember when they all used to laugh at us. Well, go ahead and laugh bulls, us bears will have our day. Let's see how long this lie can last.

To me, it sounds like no bears are left. Im going out and getting myself a line of credit and going all in, SHORT...

Dny

Anonymous said...

Forgot to say that the tea party followers are a whole bunch of retards. Yes, retards.

Why do you guys follow a freaking "tea party" that is full of pathetic republicans? Are you guys blind or stupid?

And please dont compare permabears with these retards Keith!

Dny

JAWS said...

I loved HP.
It was my AM fix.
S&A and I are not on the same track.
The March '09 "green shoots" yanked my gutts out. I haven't seen them yet.
I'll read the In Come the Waves and the A Special Report on America's Economy tomorrow morning with my feet up and a great cup of coffee.
I never doubt what I read on this site, comments especially.

You're right - at this point, I have no HOPE. I'm in it, totally. No HOPE. I always used to have hope even if it was just a flicker that would diminish by happy hour. There was always hope. There's none now.

That's a clue right there.

This sucker can't do a 180 without hitting the point of nothing.

Maybe that's where we are.

JAWS

Anonymous said...

You're a sellout just like the seattle bubble blogger. Next you'll probably have realtor advertisements also.

edd browne said...

Good points ….
Noodles123 said:

"….Sad thing is they are better prepared
and hardier than the average American,
and don't wilt when things get bad ...

Comes with being poor, and sadly enough, a lil
more savvy about the evil of men and their greed."
.

Higher Meth said...

Don't allow this corporatist, PC crybaby to steal another moment of your time. Someone's gotta call out this self-righteous blowhard and expose him for the deeply affected fraud he is.

"HousingPANIC was about the shit-storm to come. Before people knew. And then it came."

Don't flatter yourself, little fella. Your blog was prescient . . . . as were thousands of other voices in the wilderness. I called this baby in '05. That we managed to get this right is not so much a tribute to our insight as it is a testament to the utter stupidity of your average American.

Referencing The Economist? Ummm - Really? They don't even register among the top 10 trusted sites for nuts and bolts economics anymore. Ummm - BBC anyone? Having said that, it doesn't surprise me that you still cling to their hackneyed, block-style high school newspaper musings.

So, given that the vast majority of us are Permabears (94% I believe), what would you suggest is going to be the driving force behind the next uninterrupted [read: increasingly narrowing time frame between bubbles] boom cycle that will bring us back to full employment, beat down deficits, stop inflation dead in its tracks (WITHOUT killing housing - your specialty), GREATLY bolster exports and allow us to meet our OH-SO-LOOMING unfunded liabilities, pray tell? Oh, and just when does the great one intend to pull us out of Iraq as promised? How 'bout Afghanistan? Or are we only getting warmed up? I think we both know how this story ends, don't we?

Keith, you're probably an OK guy and someone with whom I would choke down a pint under different circumstances, but you're barking up the wrong tree here. Are Tea Baggers problematic? They're undoubtedly degenerate, but not any more degenerate than the ilk you apparently find more suitable i.e. Pelosi, Frank, Reid, Dodd, Rahm, the aforementioned "Guam" dipshit (allowed to remain on committee by Pelosi herself) and a whole host of other sycophants and crooks who embody the essence of the "enlightened criminal", looking down their noses at us simpletons who weren't fortunate enough to have a Bryn Mawr trust fund waiting in the wings. And if you think Obama is different than Bush or McCain in any meaningful way, just have a look at his donor list and get back to me. He's Uncle Tom and you know it. More bright and articulate? To be sure. Providing "transparency" and Change We Can Believe In? Not a chance.

I have no doubt that it feels good to hunker down among the elitist Celebtard assholes and beltway Leftists who decry the very things your rage against on this blog. Only they do it from the lofty heights of their Bel-Air Estates and political offices where they can view racism, poverty, unemployment, health care and other "trivial" matters in the abstract. Knock off the smug, self-satisfied bullshit, Keith.

Ultimately, you're just as ignorant as the very people at whom you take so much pleasure in wagging your finger. Like many of the hardcore PC Nazis I've met in my life, you wouldn't be caught dead with the people you purportedly champion. It's actually all very funny when you think about it, but PC has always been about controlling people, just like religion.

But just to stay on point . . . let's hear your plan for the future and I want details. Enough vagaries -- let's hear how the iPad, Express shipping, conspicuous consumption and granite countertops will lead us out. I know you think we're going to come out of this "rebalanced" per your delusional "Economist" article, but we know the American people have bought into American Idol and shiny gadgets Hook, Line & Sinker. IF the American people are so ignorant, contemptible and beneath you, how do you expect them to find the wherewithal to change their very nature? Ooooops. I guess we'll just leave it to the Volvo-driving college professors to do the heavy lifting, eh Keith?

Anonymous said...

"...We accounted for (most of) the bad debts. We took the 30% - 50% haircut on home prices..."

I'll have some of what he's smoking.

"...the American people are now awake..."

They never even made it past denial, Keith.

Devestment said...

Hey kid, wanna buy my mutual fund?

tom12008 said...

Keith,
At first I thought your optimism was ill-founded. I thought you had underestimated the capacity of people in this country to tolerate abuse. So many of us had it so good for so long, that they don't seem to recognize what is happening to them. But I've had to reconsider my pessimism.

Many of the people between ages 18-30 that I talk to are awake, and they understand the importance of staying alert, midnful, and actively engaged in the world around them. Because of them, I dare to hope, to believe again.

I hope you'll explain more about what grounds your optimism. I think recovery is possible. I think the permabear reflex for some is grounded in the understanding that even determined junkies can fall "off the wagon", never to get back on again.

If you can make the case that America is strong enough to redefine her place in the world for the better, you might convince more people. If I see more evidence from where I live, I will share it here.

Prisoner No. 6 said...

Glad to see that you took my suggestion, and posted the Economist article.

And also sad to see that so many perma-bears refuse to acknowledge that some of the things that Obama has done have actually pointed the U.S. in the right direction. Coming out through the seams of their comments is the same blather about God and religion that the Bush crew used to spew as a cover for their idiocy. There are a lot of posters here that seem to want to wallow in some fantasy that the sky is falling, all is lost, oh poor me, hate everyone, everything sucks, it's all the fault of (fill in blank).

When did the right wing turn into such a bunch of scaredy-cat crybaby Emos?

Anonymous said...

"...When did the right wing turn into such a bunch of scaredy-cat crybaby Emos?"

The day Obama clinched the nomination; what an enormous sigh of relief to spot a scapegoat on the horizon.

Just keep repeating: everything was great Jan. 19th, 2009.

Saul said...

I.don't.think.so.

Give it time.

Anonymous said...

It's ironic how much you have in common with those you detest. Do you realize that you and Rush Limbaugh are a mirror image? The question remains - are you more partisan than Rush?