What does December 31, 2009 look like? What will have passed?

If you look back at HP's annual prediction threads, you'd be freaked out.

We're good.

So have at it - what's December 31, 2009 look like?

* Housing
* Stocks
* Dollar
* Arrests
* Gold
* Black swans

My belief?

2009 will be one of the most historic, shocking and eventful years in modern history.

May you live in interesting times.

"People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people."

At one point, around the world, country by country, people will have had enough.

The bankers and their corrupt and incompetent government stooges made away with the people's treasure, wrecked their industries and destroyed their currencies.

And so then, the people will rise up.

Peacefully at first.

And then in places where the ballot box is fixed or denied, not so peacefully.

Yes, the people, unemployed, increasingly broke, hungry, cold, desperate and pissed, will rise up.

It's already starting.

It hath been foretold.

What country is next?

The world is not going back to normal
after the magnitude of what they have done.

Jim Rogers has a few ideas about 2009 and beyond

Anyone taking Chinese lessons?

Got commodities?

Can you believe we've come to this?

I mean, really, can you believe it all really happened?

Just as many of you predicted for years it would...

Kinda spooky, eh?

Here's the list. I probably forgot some. Have at it...

* Global housing crash
* Global financial meltdown
* Stock market crash
* Dollar destruction
* Massive government bailouts and stimuli
* Indymac, Countrywide, WaMu, Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, Goldman, GM, ...
* Obama victory / GOP destruction
* Gold
* realtors humiliated, NAR discredited, homebuilders destroyed
* Illegals out of work and going home
* MSM no longer trusted or respected
* Mortgage brokers unemployed, never to return
* Inflation/Deflation/Inflation
* OilPANIC. RicePANIC. IcelandPANIC.
* State and local government budget disasters
* Mass layoffs
* Change of collective consciousness on debt, savings, housing, consumption and trust
* Fraud
* Hedge fund blowups

What's still missing or to come?

* Arrests and trials
* Hyperinflation
* Riots and social disorder
* Crime
* Government failures and coups
* Resource wars
* Congressional investigations
* New regulations
* Breakup of the NAR/MLS
* Recovery?

Is it illegal to call for the assassination of a foreign leader?

Sure would be nice if the world had a United Nations.

Sure would be nice if Africa looked after their own.

Sure would be nice if the US didn't have to be the world's policeman and savior.

Sure would be nice if people would kill or imprison their own corrupt leaders.

Hyperinflation and dollar destruction - it hath been foretold

I would like to meet one of the fools lending money to the US for 30 years at 2.5%

I would like to meet one of the fools selling everything in order to accumulate US dollars.

I'm not sure what was a more stupid mania - the housing bubble, or this brief rush to US dollars and debt.

Bernanke told you what he was going to do, and now he's doing it. Inflation, then deflation, then hyperinflation.

It hath been foretold.

May you live in interesting times.

"This is an American-made crisis magnified by U.S. incompetence"

"The rest of the world has very good cause to be angry with the United States. This is an American-made crisis magnified by U.S. incompetence. Bush and Paulson will leave office in disgrace."

- Economist David Hale, December 2008

Uh, Gov, they got you on tape. Now get the f*ck out. And take that thing off your head - you're scaring the children.

Man, it's easy to hate American politicians these days.

And what's that animal sitting on this guy's head? I can't figure it out.

Doesn't it amaze you that in a country full of religious crazies, unapologetic racists, undereducated dolts and evolution-denying ignoramuses....

That THIS guy somehow won the presidency?

Man, that economic crash must have been REALLY bad.

Otherwise, there's NO WAY they give this dude the wheel.

32 more days...

Mortgage rates are at historic lows, home prices have crashed 30% to 50% in most areas, and it's STILL not time to buy?

Man, what will it take?

0% financing and 90% off sales?

A $10,000 tax credit from the government?

Maybe a free pizza?

Seriously, anyone getting tempted to go buy a home?

Mortgage Rate Hits 37-Year Low

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage in the U.S. fell to a national average of 5.17% this week, the lowest since Freddie Mac began its weekly rate survey in 1971.

With the Federal Reserve cutting its interest rates to near 0% and a continued decline in rates on the long-term Treasury notes that mortgages closely track, rates on other types of mortgages dropped again, though not as much as the 30-year.

Oil has crashed from $140 down to $40 a barrel. Oil companies with proven reserves are cheap. So shouldn't the US be buying it all up - FAST?

Remember just a few weeks ago when people were clamoring for the US to release oil from the strategic reserve?

Remember predictions of $200 a barrel by year-end?

Remember peak oil?

Anyone?

Anyone?

As the market goes crazy - to the downside - a smart country would take advantage. Because this won't last.

Here's some more thoughts on oil

1) The US should triple the size of the strategic reserve as fast as it can, and fill the sucker up with cheap oil

2) Any company involved in transportation should be out buying up cheap oil hedges for the next five years

3) Congress should send cake and pie and an apology to the US oil company CEOs they stupidly eviscerated just a few weeks ago for "gouging"

4) US oil companies should deploy their cash as fast as they can and buy up beaten-down energy companies around the world. Go buy stakes in Lukoil and Gazprom. Go buy Petrobrasil. Go buy solar companies and wind companies. Go buy everything you can.

5) The US should impose an immediate $1 a gallon gas tax to pay for new roads and bridges

6) Change the world. Add 1 MPG to the fuel efficiency standard every year for 20 years. Ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars by 2030.

I could go on. This is simply the last-in-your-lifetime opportunity when it comes to oil. It will never, ever be cheap again.

Never.

Wars will be fought over oil in the near future. Oil panics will set in. Suburbs will be razed. Lifestyles will change. Gas-powered cars will be banned. Industrial production will be jeopardized. And then one day, it is a mathematical certainty, the world will run out of oil.

It hath been foretold.

Schiff on the "phony economy", the upcoming California bailout, hedge fund liquidation, and what's ahead for the dollar, gold and commodities

There's been a temporary a and short-lived spike in the US dollar as people and funds around the world liquidated.

It won't last.

And there's been a collapse in US-dollar denominated metals and commodities. Even though gold (which is money) has held up nicely - and actually skyrocketed in foreign currencies.

Don't get fooled by short-term stuff. Think about where we've been, and where we're heading. And get ready, before everyone else figures it out.

Here's the list of countries and conmen that tried to buy President Hillary Clinton (if she would have won)

This, folks, is freaking sick.

Bill and Hillary Clinton should be in jail.

And America is a corrupt third-world country, sold to the highest bidder, now paying the price.

Donors who have contributed between $10 million–$25 million:

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: The royal family wants to remain a loyal U.S. ally, and keep their image clean. The Saudis give to every former president’s library or foundation, so this is a regular part of doing business for them.

Donors who have contributed between $1 million–$5 million:

Sheikh Mohammed H. Al-Amoudi: An Ethiopian-born Saudi businessman whose businesses extend from oil and gas to gold. He made his first fortune in construction and real estate before branching out into buying oil refineries in Sweden and Morocco. Today he is reportedly one the largest foreign investors in both Sweden, where he was honoured with the Royal Swedish Order of the North Star by King Carl XVI — and his native Ethiopia, where he bankrolls the national soccer team.

Nasser Al-Rashid: A 69 year old Saudi businessman. Chairman of Rashid Engineering, he is described in a biography listed at University of Texas, his alma mater, as an engineering consultant to Saudi King Fahd and the Saudi royal court. He received a Ph.D. from UT in engineering, and has built the Dr. Nasser Al-Rashid Strength and Training Center there. According to the UT Web site, Rashid Engineering was grossing over $2 billion a year by 1980, and had become the kingdom’s largest engineering firm, designing more than 100 major projects. Rashid’s corporate Web site says that the firm designed the Riyadh-Dammam highway, the road that leads from the Saudi capital to the oil-rich region in the eastern half of the kingdom; the governorate and administrative offices in Saudi’s oil rich Eastern Province and the King Fahd Holy Koran Printing Complex, the major Saudi religious text book publisher.

Gilbert R. Chagoury: A Lebanese Christian businessman with an industrial fortune in Nigeria. The Chagoury Group has become one of the leading Africa based corporations in Nigeria, with manufacturing, construction, industrial, hotels and high technology companies

Dubai Foundation: Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, set up this $10 billion foundation in May 2007 to improve the standard of education and research and to stimulate job creation in the Middle East. It is unclear how donations to the Clinton foundation help spur those objectives. But Sheikh Mohammed is also the majority owner of most of the major Dubai companies, like Dubai Ports World, the port manager that became embroiled in the congressional battle and ultimately was prevented from taking over management of various US ports in 2005. DP World’s parent company Dubai World owns significant stakes in gambling and hospitality industries as well as real estate projects in Los Vegas and Los Angeles. Clinton has business interests with Dubai together with Ron Burkle.

Mr. Issam M. Fares & The Wedge Foundation: He is the deputy prime minister of Lebanon and an international financier. Fares heads a broad collection of banks, factories, and companies in the Middle East, Europe and the United States through the Wedge Group, an investment firm based in the United States. This is all according to his personal Web site. Among his Wedge Group holdings: the Food Corporation International, an American exporter of staples such as rice; and Ballast-Nedam, the largest Dutch construction company.

Friends of Saudi Arabia: This is a U.S. based non-profit. The group is made up of former diplomats and U.S. businessmen with interests in Saudi Arabia. Officially, they say that they work to address cultural and educational links between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Their major objective is to massage the image of the Kingdom and the portrayal of Muslims and Islam within the U.S. and its media outlets. Funding comes from the Saudi royal family.

State of Kuwait: The Kuwait royal family. Eternal gratitude for saving their country is a big enough reason to give to every former president. No outstanding foreign policy issues that butt up against U.S. interests or goals. The Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund has massive U.S. investments, in the financial sector and elsewhere.

State of Qatar: The Qatari royal family. Qatar is host to two U.S. military bases, and the country is a very close Gulf ally.

The Sultanate of Oman: The Omani ruler is the big defense client of the U.S. It also has a free trade agreement with the U.S that was signed during the Bush administration. Oman is not a big player in regional or foreign policy issues, so unclear what direct issue they would be gunning for in exchange for the donation. In the Gulf, if one royal family gets wind that another is giving a gift, they have to match to save face. That’s one reason why we could have Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the U.A.E all in the same monetary bracket.

The Zayed Family: This is the ruling family of Abu Dhabi and the U.A.E. Abu Dhabi is the real power of the country, the silent, deep-pocketed rulers to Dubai’s nouveau riche brashness. Dubai can form its own trade policies, but Abu Dhabi controls national policy. The U.A.E is currently negotiating to buy a reported $9 billion in U.S. missile defense technology. The Pentagon is on board, but it is possibly contentious from Israel’s point of view. Additionally, the U.A.E is looking to sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S., something that members of Congress are already looking to spoil due to concerns about the U.A.E’s close trade relationship– and lax banking and trade regulations–with Iran. Additionally, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds have major investment interests in the U.S., including in Citigroup and General Electric.

Dick Cheney admits he ordered the code red: Now facing criminal prosecution and arrest on foreign soil unless Bush pardons him (as expected)

So Dick Cheney put it out there for all to see - he has now admitted he ordered the torture of people he determined to be "enemy combatants".

Why the admission?

So that his co-conspirator Bush is forced to pardon him in a few days.

Which, of course, he will.

And yes, this is sick. Sick, sick, sick.

First we had Bush illegally order Scooter Libby to illegally leak the name of a CIA spy for political reasons - and then he set Libby free.

And then we had Cheney, likely at Bush's urging, illegally order torture. And illegal wiretaps too.

And then Bush, of course, will pardon Cheney.

So, what does that leave?

If Libby and Cheney (and all the other people Bush is about to pardon) cannot be prosecuted for their crimes, what are we to do to get some form of justice?

The United States must threaten to investigate and prosecute George W. Bush.

The one and only way to prevent Bush from pardoning everyone involved in the lawlessness of this administration would be for President-Elect Obama to tell Bush, right now, publicly, that if he dares pardon Cheney, Rumsfeld, Meyers, Gonzalez or any of his administration or fellow co-conspirators, then Obama will not pardon or impede the investigation of Bush. Otherwise, Bush will do his dirty deed.

Within days.

Cheney Taunts Bush, Pardon Me or Else

With his ABC interview Vice President Dick Cheney put a smoking gun on the table. He admitted that he, along with other top administration officials, personally approved the CIA's waterboarding of prisoners. That he said it unapologetically is merely his low-keyed way of declaring open war.

Here's 13 points for the bull case for stocks. Go ahead, shoot this down... if you can

1) Massive drop in gas prices = hundreds of billions more available to spend (or invest)

2) Big drop in price for nearly all commodities and consumer goods

3) Massive and historic stimulus by the Fed

4) $1 trillion money bomb on the way from Obama

5) Bad if not horrific news now priced in

6) Massive layoffs = companies getting lean

7) Nearly everyone is a bear and thinks a Great Depression or worse is on the way

8) Mortgage rates at historic lows - refis lowering monthly payments with some likely taking cash out

9) Stocks going back up = new self-perpetuating wealth effect

10) Huge Obama approval rating, world peace breaking out, Iraq war ending

11) Hedge fund liquidations almost over

12) Bush, Paulson and Cox nearly gone

13) Huge piles of depreciating dollars sitting on the sidelines with no other place to go


OK, that's doing my best with my sunshine hat on.

So, have we hit bottom?

Soot and Ashes Quote of the Day

"It was almost like you were getting let into the club of investors, and everybody wanted to be in. He was like, `Oh, wow! You've got a Madoff account.'"

- Palm Beach Accountant Richard Rampell, on the biggest Ponzi Scheme at the Palm Beach Country Club, December 2008

We knew all of this three years ago. But here's 60 minutes, doing what the MSM does best - doing their job after it's too late

Too bad we didn't have investigative journalists in America these past few years. Because REAL reporters would have LOVED to uncover a mess like the one we're in now.

Soot and Ashes Serious Question of the Day

If you agree with me (and Ben Bernanke) that the United States is intentionally devaluing the US dollar, but you don't want to put your money into equities of potentially failing or corrupt companies or funds, what are some of the best things into which to move your devaluing dollars?